Abstract: Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species, which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts. Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management. Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix, neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients. To address this, we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios, three-dimensional habitat suitability (latitude, longitude, altitude) for four major Larix species (L. principis-rupprechtii, L. gmelinii, L. kaempferi, L. olgensis), while identifying key environmental drivers. Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution. Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences: cation exchange capacity critically shaped L. principis-rupprechtii and L. gmelinii ranges, whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L. kaempferi and L. olgensis distribution. Under future climate scenarios, habitat areas show divergent trajectories—L. principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1% under SSP126, while L. kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%. Conversely, SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L. gmelinii during the 2040s − 2100s, and L. olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains. Spatially, three species (L. kaempferi, L. gmelinii, L. olgensis) shifted northward, while L. principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest. All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies. These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.

Key words: Climate change, MaxEnt model, Elevation, Cation exchange capacity, Exchangeable aluminum