Avoiding over‑crediting of forestry carbon offsets under the new 
global carbon market

doi:10.1007/s11676-025-01940-w

JOURNAL OF FORESTRY RESEARCH ›› 2026, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 1-.DOI: 10.1007/s11676-025-01940-w

• Perspective •

Avoiding over‑crediting of forestry carbon offsets under the new global carbon market

Chunyu Pan¹, Guomo Zhou², John L. Innes¹, John‑O. Niles³, Frank Berninger⁴, Guangyu Wang¹

¹Forest Carbon Research Lab, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada

²Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Carbon Sequestration and Emission Reduction in Agriculture and Forestry, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, People’s Republic of China

³Carbon Institute, University of California, San Diego 92103, USA

⁴Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Joensuu Campus, University of Eastern Finland, 80101 Joensuu, Finland

Received:2025-04-30 Accepted:2025-10-01 Online:2025-11-22 Published:2026-01-01
Supported by:
This work is funded by the “Pioneer” and “Leading Goose” R&D Program of Zhejiang (2022C03039), UBC-ZAFU Bamboo Research Fund (POAU GR022067), and Eco2adapt EU-China flagship project under Horizon Europe (101059498).

Abstract

Abstract: COP29 stepped forward in operationalizing the critical Paris Agreement Article 6 mechanism, which poses new opportunities for forest-based carbon crediting projects. However, these projects, especially those with forest conservation activities, once deemed promising nature-based solutions to climate change, have been facing unique over-crediting challenges, which raised significant concerns in the public and academia. This paper provides recommendations for adopting a dynamic matched baseline accounting approach to enhance integrity and rebuild trust in the industry and the upcoming new global carbon market.

Key words: Climate change, Forest carbon, REDD+, Dynamic baseline, Paris Agreement Article 6, Additionality

Chunyu Pan, Guomo Zhou, John L. Innes, John‑O. Niles, Frank Berninger, Guangyu Wang. Avoiding over‑crediting of forestry carbon offsets under the new global carbon market[J]. JOURNAL OF FORESTRY RESEARCH, 2026, 37(1): 1-.

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Avoiding over‑crediting of forestry carbon offsets under the new global carbon market

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