植物研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 180-191.doi: 10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2024.02.003
• 系统与进化 • 上一篇
贺晓慧1,2, 高健1(), 朱丽1, 郝瑞敏1, 黄磊1, 朱晋1, 程莉1, 周洁1
收稿日期:
2022-11-30
出版日期:
2024-03-20
发布日期:
2024-03-11
通讯作者:
高健
E-mail:gaojian5688@163.com
作者简介:
贺晓慧(1985—),女,副教授,主要从事生物地理与植物生理生态学研究。
基金资助:
Xiaohui HE1,2, Jian GAO1(), Li ZHU1, Ruimin HAO1, Lei HUANG1, jin ZHU1, Li CHENG1, Jie ZHOU1
Received:
2022-11-30
Online:
2024-03-20
Published:
2024-03-11
Contact:
Jian GAO
E-mail:gaojian5688@163.com
摘要:
为了解蒙古高原第三纪孑遗珍稀濒危物种蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)潜在分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应,利用121个蒙古扁桃种群分布点数据,选取气候和土壤变量,通过在R软件Biomod2建模平台构建物种综合适宜生境模型(CHS),模拟当前气候条件和预测未来两个时期(2050S和2090S)共3种不同气候情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)蒙古扁桃的潜在分布、时空演变特征及适宜生境迁移。结果显示:气候适宜性模型(
中图分类号:
贺晓慧, 高健, 朱丽, 郝瑞敏, 黄磊, 朱晋, 程莉, 周洁. 蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布对气候变化的响应[J]. 植物研究, 2024, 44(2): 180-191.
Xiaohui HE, Jian GAO, Li ZHU, Ruimin HAO, Lei HUANG, jin ZHU, Li CHENG, Jie ZHOU. Response of Potential Geographic Distribution of Amygdalus mongolica to Climate Change[J]. Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2024, 44(2): 180-191.
表1
蒙古扁桃地理分布模拟所需环境变量
数据来源和分类 Data sources and classifications | 环境因子 Environment factors | 描述 Description |
---|---|---|
环境气候变量 Environmental climate variables | Bio1 | 年平均气温Annual mean temperature(℃) |
Bio2 | 平均日较差Mean diurnal range(℃) | |
Bio4 | 温度季节性变化Temperature seasonality | |
Bio12 | 年降水量Annual precipitation(mm) | |
Bio15 | 降水量的季节性变化Precipitation seasonality | |
Bio19 | 最冷季降水量Precipitation of the coldest quarter(mm) | |
环境土壤变量 Environmental soil variables | T_BS | 表层基本饱和度Topsoil Basic Saturation(%) |
T_BULK_DENSITY | 土壤容重Topsoil Bulk Density(kg/dm3) | |
T_CACO3 | 表土碳酸盐或石灰石含量Topsoil Calcium Carbonate(% weight) | |
T_CASO4 | 表土硫酸盐含量Topsoil Gypsum(% weight) | |
T_CEC_CLAY | 黏性层土壤的阳离子交换能力Topsoil Cation Exchange Capacity of Clay(cmol/kg) | |
T_CEC_SOIL | 土壤的阳离子交换能力Topsoil Cation Exchange Capacity of Soil(cmol/kg) | |
T_CLAY | 表土黏土含量Topsoil Clay Fraction(% wt.) | |
T_ECE | 表土电导率Topsoil Salinity(dS/m) | |
T_ESP | 表土可交换性钠盐Topsoil Sodicity(%) | |
T_GRAVEL | 表土砾石含量Topsoil Gravel Content(%vol.) | |
T_OC | 表层土壤有机碳含量Topsoil Organic Carbon(% weight) | |
T_PH_H2O | 表层土壤酸碱度Topsoil pH(H2O) | |
T_REF_BULK_DENSITY | 表土土壤容重Topsoil Reference Bulk Density(kg/dm3) | |
T_SAND | 表土含砂率Topsoil Sand Fraction(% wt.) | |
T_SILT | 表土淤泥含量Topsoil Silt Fraction(% wt.) | |
T_TEB | 表层交换性盐基Topsoil TEB(cmol/kg) | |
T_USDA_TEX_CLASS | 表层USDA土壤质地分类Topsoil USDA Texture Classification(name) |
表2
不同气候情景下蒙古扁桃在中国的适宜生境面积
时间 Time | 气候情景 Climate scenario | 面积Area/104 km2 | 占比Proportion/% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
适宜生境 Suitable habitat | 非适宜生境 Unsuitable habitat | 适宜生境 Suitable habitat | 非适宜生境 Unsuitable habitat | ||
当前Current | — | 64.00 | 896.00 | 6.67 | 93.33 |
2041-2060(2050S) | SSP1-2.6 | 62.62 | 897.38 | 6.52 | 93.48 |
SSP3-7.0 | 59.63 | 900.37 | 6.21 | 93.79 | |
SSP5-8.5 | 58.44 | 901.56 | 6.09 | 93.91 | |
2081-2100(2090S) | SSP1-2.6 | 60.85 | 899.15 | 6.34 | 93.66 |
SSP3-7.0 | 57.92 | 902.08 | 6.03 | 93.97 | |
SSP5-8.5 | 50.80 | 909.20 | 5.29 | 94.71 |
1 | DAWSON T P, JACKSON S T, HOUSE J I,et al.Beyond predictions:biodiversity conservation in a changing climate[J].Science,2011,332(6025):53-58. |
2 | 秦大河, STOCKER T.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6. |
QIN D H, STOCKER T.Highlights of the IPCC Working Group Ⅰ Fifth assessment report[J].Climate Change Research,2014,10(1):1-6. | |
3 | PARMESAN C, YOHE G.A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems[J].Nature,2003,421(6918):37-42. |
4 | PEREIRA H M, LEADLEY P W, PROENÇA V,et al.Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century[J].Science,2010,330(6010):1496-1501. |
5 | 郭彦龙.气候变化对丝绸之路沿线荒漠植物地理分布以及物种多样性的影响[D].兰州:中国科学院大学,2018. |
GUO Y L.Prediction of the influence of climate change on potential geographic distribution and species diversity of desert species along the Silk Road[D].Lanzhou:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2018. | |
6 | FEELEY K J, BRAVO-AVILA C, FADRIQUE B,et al.Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities[J].Nature Climate Change,2020,10(10):965-970. |
7 | ZHAO Z F, GUO Y L, ZHU F X,et al.Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2021,501(2):119653. |
8 | LENOIR J, BERTRAND R, COMTE L,et al.Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land[J].Nature Ecology & Evolution,2020,4:1044-1059. |
9 | FANG Y Q, ZHANG X H, WEI H Y,et al.Predicting the invasive trend of exotic plants in China based on the ensemble model under climate change:A case for three invasive plants of Asteraceae[J].Science of The Total Environment,2021,756:143841. |
10 | 郭彦龙,赵泽芳,乔慧捷,等.物种分布模型面临的挑战与发展趋势[J].地球科学进展,2020,35(12):1292-1305. |
GUO Y L, ZHAO Z F, QIAO H J,et al.Challenges and development trend of species distribution model[J].Advances in Earth Science,2020,35(12):1292-1305. | |
11 | 高健,赵辉.基于MaxEnt模型评估槭属鸡爪槭组物种的空间分布[J].西北林学院学报,2021,36(1):163-167. |
GAO J, ZHAO H.Prediction of potentially suitable distribution of section Palmata(Acer) in East Asia Based on MaxEnt[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2021,36(1):163-167. | |
12 | TESSAROLO G, LOBO J M, RANGEL T F,et al.High uncertainty in the effects of data characteristics on the performance of species distribution models[J].Ecological Indicators,2021,121:107147. |
13 | GUISAN A, THUILLER W, ZIMMERMANN N E.Habitat suitability and distribution models:with applications in R[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2017. |
14 | 赵一之.蒙古扁桃的植物区系地理分布研究[J].内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版),1995,26(6):713-715. |
ZHAO Y Z.Study on floristic geographical distribution of Amygdalus mongolica [J].Journal of Inner Mongolia University(Natural Science Edition),1995,26(6):713-715. | |
15 | 张杰,王佳,李浩宇,等.濒危植物蒙古扁桃不同地理种群遗传多样性的ISSR分析[J].生态学报,2012,32(14):4443-4452. |
ZHANG J, WANG J, LI H Y,et al.Genetic diversity of different eco-geographical populations in endangered plant Prunus mongolica by ISSR Markers[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(14):4443-4452. | |
16 | 周亮,杨君珑,杨虎,等.宁夏蒙古扁桃群落特征与分类[J].植物生态学报,2022,46(2):243-248. |
ZHOU L, YANG J L, YANG H,et al.Community characteristics and classification of Amygdalus mongolian in Ningxia,China[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2022,46(2):243-248. | |
17 | 李倩,百万富,周红兵,等.蒙古扁桃油对肺纤维化大鼠的保护作用研究[J].中药药理与临床,2021,37(4):90-96. |
LI Q, BAI W F, ZHOU H B,et al.Protective effect of Amygdalus mongolica oil against pulmonary fibrosis in rats[J].Pharmacology and Clinics of Chinese Materia Medica,2021,37(4):90-96. | |
18 | 马松梅,聂迎彬,耿庆龙,等.气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响[J].植物生态学报,2014,38(3):262-269. |
MA S M, NIE Y B, GENG Q L,et al.Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica [J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2014,38(3):262-269. | |
19 | 马松梅,聂迎彬,段霞,等.蒙古扁桃植物的潜在地理分布及居群保护优先性[J].生态学报,2015,35(9):2960-2966. |
MA S M, NIE Y B, DUAN X,et al.The potential distribution and population protection priority of Amygdalus mongolica [J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(9):2960-2966. | |
20 | 段义忠,王佳豪,王驰,等.未来气候变化下西北干旱区4种扁桃亚属植物潜在适生区分析[J].生态学杂志,2020,39(7):2193-2204. |
DUAN Y Z, WANG J H, WANG C,et al.Analysis on the potential suitable areas of four species of the subgen.Amygdalus in arid Northwest China under future climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2020,39(7):2193-2204. | |
21 | FICK S E, HIJMANS R J.Worldclim 2:new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(12):4302-4315. |
22 | BATTINI N, FARÍAS N, GIACHETTI C B,et al.Staying ahead of invaders:using species distribution modeling to predict alien species’ potential niche shifts[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series,2019,612:127-140. |
23 | 张欣雨,朱泽群,袁雅欣,等.基于组合物种分布模型的黄河源区鹅绒委陵菜适宜生境及其对气候变化的响应[J].草业科学,2022,39(2):254-267. |
ZHANG X Y, ZHU Z Q, YUAN Y X,et al.Assessment of suitable Potentilla anserina habitat and its response to climate change in the source region of the Yellow River based on ensemble species distribution modeling[J].Pratacultural Science,2022,39(2):254-267. | |
24 | FERNÁNDEZ M, HAMILTON H, ALVAREZ O,et al.Does adding multi-scale climatic variability improve our capacity to explain niche transferability in invasive species?[J].Ecological Modelling,2012,246:60-67. |
25 | LI B G, PAN R L, OXNARD C E.Extinction of Snub-Nosed monkeys in china during the past 400 years[J].International Journal of Primatology,2002,23:1227-1244. |
26 | HOF A R, JANSSON R, NILSSON C.The usefulness of elevation as a predictor variable in species distribution modelling[J].Ecological Modelling,2012,246:86-90. |
27 | 邱晓萍,张懿,张咏梅.全球气候变化对丹参潜在适宜区分布影响[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2022,29(9):1-10. |
QIU X P, ZHANG Y, ZHANG Y M.Effects of global climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge[J].Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine,2022,29(9):1-10. | |
28 | 张爱平,王毅,熊勤犁,等.末次间冰期以来3种云杉属植物的历史分布变迁及避难所[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(7):2411-2421. |
ZHANG A P, WANG Y, XIONG Q L,et al.Distribution changes and refugia of three spruce taxa since the last interglacial[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,29(7):2411-2421. | |
29 | 段义忠,王海涛,王驰,等.气候变化下濒危植物半日花在中国的潜在分布[J].植物资源与环境学报,2020,29(2):55-68. |
DUAN Y Z, WANG H T, WANG C,et al.Potential distribution of endangered plant Helianthemum songaricum in China under climate change[J].Journal of Plant Resources and Environment,2020,29(2):55-68. | |
30 | LOBO J M, JIMÉNEZ-VALVERDE A, REAL R.AUC:a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2008,17(2):145-151. |
31 | QIU Y X, FU C X, COMES H P.Plant molecular phylogeography in China and adjacent regions:Tracing the genetic imprints of Quaternary climate and environmental change in the world’s most diverse temperate flora[J].Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution,2011,59(1):225-244. |
32 | ALSOS I G, EHRICH D, THUILLER W,et al.Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,2012,279(1735):2042-2051. |
33 | CARROLL C, LAWLER J J, ROBERTS D R,et al.Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change[J].PLoS One,2015,10(10):e0142024. |
34 | 鲁客,贺一鸣,毛伟,等.未来气候变化下黑沙蒿在中国的潜在地理分布及变迁[J].应用生态学报,2020,31(11):3758-3766. |
LU K, HE Y M, MAO W,et al.Potential geographical distribution and changes of Artemisia ordosica in China under future climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2020,31(11):3758-3766. | |
35 | 段义忠,鱼慧,王海涛,等.孑遗濒危植物四合木(Tetraena mongolica)的地理分布与潜在适生区预测[J].植物科学学报,2019,37(3):337-347. |
DUAN Y Z, YU H, WANG H T,et al.Geographical distribution and prediction of potentially suitable regions of endangered relict plant Tetraena mongolica [J].Plant Science Journal,2019,37(3):337-347. | |
36 | 秦媛媛,鲁客,杜忠毓,等.气候变化情景下孑遗植物绵刺在中国的潜在地理分布[J].生态学报,2022,42(11):4473-4484. |
QIN Y Y, LU K, DU Z Y,et al.Potential changes in the geographical distribution of the relict plant Potaninia mongolica Maxim. in China under climate change scenarios[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2022,42(11):4473-4484. | |
37 | 陈亚宁,李玉朋,李稚,等.全球气候变化对干旱区影响分析[J].地球科学进展,2022,37(2):111-119. |
CHEN Y N, LI Y P, LI Z,et al.Analysis of the impact of global climate change on dryland areas[J].Advances in Earth Science,2022,37(2):111-119. | |
38 | LOARIE S R, DUFFY P B, HAMILTON H,et al.The velocity of climate change[J].Nature,2009,462:1052-1055. |
39 | 段义忠,朱国旭,杜忠毓,等.西北干旱区白刺属植物适生环境的模拟分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2021,35(2):124-129. |
DUAN Y Z, ZHU G X, DU Z Y,et al.Simulation and analysis of the suitable environment for Nitraria L. in the arid area of northwest China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2021,35(2):124-129. | |
40 | 张华,赵浩翔,徐存刚.气候变化背景下孑遗植物桫椤在中国的潜在地理分布[J].生态学杂志,2021,40(4):968-979. |
ZHANG H, ZHAO H X, XU C G.The potential geographical distribution of Alsophila spinulosain under climate change in China[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2021,40(4):968-979. | |
41 | LIOUBIMTSEVA E, HENEBRY G M.Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia:impacts,vulnerability,and adaptations[J].Journal of Arid Environments,2009,73(11):963-977. |
42 | ZHANG L, SUN F F, MA S M,et al.Phylogeography of Amygdalus mongolica in relation to Quaternary climatic aridification and oscillations in northwestern China[J].PeerJ,2022,10:e13345. |
43 | 严子柱,李爱德,李得禄,等.珍稀濒危保护植物蒙古扁桃的生长特性研究[J].西北植物学报,2007,27(3):625-628. |
YAN Z Z, LI A D, LI D L,et al.Growth characteristics of endangered Amygdalus mongolica [J].Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica,2007,27(3):625-628. |
[1] | 李小莉, 苏旭, 王东, 刘玉萍, 陈金元, 孙成林. 气候变化背景下青藏高原特有种唐古特红景天的地理分布格局预测[J]. 植物研究, 2024, 44(2): 168-179. |
[2] | 杨倩, 袁园, 苏旭, 刘玉萍, 王东, 李小莉, 孙成林, 杨萍. 气候变化背景下糙果紫堇在中国适宜分布区的预测[J]. 植物研究, 2024, 44(1): 17-26. |
[3] | 唐兴港, 袁颖丹, 张金池. 气候变化对杉木适生区和生态位的影响[J]. 植物研究, 2022, 42(1): 151-160. |
[4] | 李宁宁, 张爱平, 张林, 王克清, 罗红燕, 潘开文. 气候变化下青藏高原两种云杉植物的潜在适生区预测[J]. 植物研究, 2019, 39(3): 395-406. |
[5] | 刘然, 王春晶, 何健, 张志翔. 气候变化背景下中国冷杉属植物地理分布模拟分析[J]. 植物研究, 2018, 38(1): 37-46. |
[6] | 袁博;白红英*;章杰;马新萍. 秦岭山地植被净初级生产力及对气候变化的响应[J]. 植物研究, 2013, 33(2): 225-231. |
[7] | 姜乃准, 段文标. 黑龙江省未来气候生态与森林的作用研究[J]. 植物研究, 1996, 16(2): 242-245. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||