Abstract: Forest ecosystems are critical to ecological stability, yet their functionality is increasingly threatened by the growing frequency of drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. While afforestation enhances forest cover in these areas, the capacity of planted forests to adapt to climate change is poorly understood. This study examines the drought resistance and adaptive capacity of planted and naturally growing Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. & C. A. Mey.) in the Ili River Basin, Xinjiang, China using tree-ring analysis. The results indicate that natural stands have a stronger correlation with meteorological factors than plantations. Over the past 50 years, significant growth declines occurred during 1995–1997, 2007–2009, and 2012–2014, with natural forests showing a greater frequency and severity of declines compared to plantations. Planted stands demonstrated greater resistance to drought, whereas natural forests had higher resilience and recovery. Over time, natural forests have shown declining resistance to drought but increased resilience and recovery. Conversely, plantations showed declines in resistance and recovery but an increased capacity for recovery. Older natural forests are more prone to growth decline, while structurally simpler planted forests show stronger drought resistance. However, following periods of drought, natural forests demonstrated a stronger capacity for recovery. These findings provide valuable insights into the response of P. schrenkiana to climate change and offer support for the sustainable management and conservation of forest ecosystems in the Xinjiang region of China.

Key words: Picea schrenkiana, Dendroecology, Natural forests, Planted forests, Drought, Forest decline