Abstract:

Under global warming, drought will reduce productivity of Pinus halepensis s.l. (subspecies halepensis and brutia) and cause a retreat from its rear edge distribution (latitudinal/elevational) in the Mediterranean. To test whether topography can influence this scenario, we studied for approximately 40 years the growth of six natural pine stands in water-limited habitats on the islands of Zakinthos and Samos (eastern Mediterranean Greece), and determined the critical moisture sources that drove pine growth. Dominant pines were selected with no permanent water sources under contrasting moisture conditions created by topography (“wet”-gulley/valley vs. “dry”-upslope habitats). The responses of P. halepensis s.l. to drought under a moderate and a worst case scenario were tested, projected under global warming (approx. − 25% and 40% in annual precipitation compared to 1961–1990 average). Our results show that “wet” habitat pines had higher productivity under normal to wet climate. However, the more precipitation declined, “wet” habitat tree growth was reduced at a significantly faster rate, but also showed a faster recovery, once rainfall returned. Thus, Pinus halepensis s.l. populations in gullies/valleys, may be more drought resilient and less likely to retreat towards higher elevation/latitudes under global warming, compared to pines on dry upslope sites. Under moderate drought, both ecosystems relied on deeper moisture pools supplied by rainfall of the previous 3–6 years (including the year of growth). However, valley/gully habitat pines on significantly deeper soils (and probably on deeper heavily weathered bedrock), appeared to utilize surface moisture from winter/spring rainfall more efficiently for survival and recovery. Thus, deep soils may provide the key “buffer” for pine survival in such ecosystems that could act as potential refugia for P. halepensis s.l. under climate change.

Key words: Tree rings, Refugia, Rooting depth, Soil depth, Mediterranean