Abstract:

Historical and current climate impacts reshape the evolutionary trajectory and ecological dynamics of entire vegetative communities, which can drive insect species distribution. Understanding the spatial distribution of insects can enhance forest management effectiveness. The effects of historical and current climates in the spatial distribution of herbivorous tree insects in China were explored. A species distribution model simulated insect spatial distribution based on 596 species and the distribution probability and richness of these species were assessed in forest ecoregions. The explanatory power of the historical climate was stronger than that of the current climate, particularly historical annual precipitation and annual mean temperatures, for the distribution of herbivorous insects. Under both historical and current climatic conditions, herbivorous tree insects were and are mainly distributed in the North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, namely in the Huang He Plain mixed forests, Changjiang Plain evergreen forests, and Sichuan Basin evergreen broadleaf forests. The Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and northeast China are regions with large impact differences between historical and current climates. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into herbivorous insect responses to sustained climate change and may contribute to long-term biodiversity conservation activities.

Key words: Bioclimatic variables, Ecoregions, Last glacial maximum, Spatial distribution, Species distribution model, Herbivorous tree insects