Abstract: Accurately forecasting ecosystem services is critical for enhancing our understanding and improving management practices within nature reserves, particularly in light of climate change, land use/cover changes, and their complex interactions. However, existing studies often fail to fully consider vegetation response, constituting a gap in the comprehensive assessment of changes in ecosystem services. Therefore, a coupled model framework integrating climate change, land use change, and vegetation dynamics was developed to allow for the simulation of dynamic ecosystem service scenarios throughout the twenty-first century. The Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve in Jiangxi Province was considered as the study area. The results showed that ecosystem services and their synergistic effects will be optimized under scenarios that emphasize strict protection of ecological lands and incorporating the SSP1-2.6 scenario. However, sustaining optimized ecosystem services poses significant challenges in scenarios characterized by resource-intensive development and ongoing climate warming, as in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Notably, discernible variations exist in balancing and synergizing the management of ecosystem services across diverse land uses and forest types. Our study underscores the importance of integrating vegetation response into the framework of ecosystem service forecasting, which is essential for assisting nature reserves in effectively addressing the multifaceted risks associated with climate change and rapid socio-economic development.

Key words: Ecosystem services, Trade-offs and synergies, Model-coupling, Scenario analysis, Nature reserves, Subtropical forests