Abstract: The scientific assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) plays a critical role in regional ecological protection and management, rational land use planning, and the establishment of ecological security barriers. The ecosystem service value of the Northeast Forest Belt from 2005 to 2020 was assessed, focusing on spatial–temporal changes and the driving forces behind these dynamics. Using multi-source data, the equivalent factor method, and geographic detectors, we analyzed natural and socio-economic factors affecting the region. which was crucial for effective ecological conservation and land-use planning. Enhanced the effectiveness of policy formulation and land use planning. The results show that the ESV of the Northeast Forest Belt exhibits an overall increasing trend from 2005 to 2020, with forests and wetlands contributing the most. However, there are significant differences between forest belts. Driven by natural and socio-economic factors, the ESV of forest belts in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces showed significant growth. In contrast, the ESV of Forest Belts in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia of China remains relatively stable, but the spatial differentiation within these regions is characterized by significant clustering of high-value and low-value areas. Furthermore, climate regulation and hydrological regulation services were identified as the most important ecological functions in the Northeast Forest Belt, contributing greatly to regional ecological stability and human well-being. The ESV in the Northeast Forest Belt is improved during the study period, but the stability of the ecosystem is still challenged by the dual impacts of natural and socio-economic factors. To further optimize regional land use planning and ecological protection policies, it is recommended to prioritize the conservation of high-ESV areas, enhance ecological restoration efforts for wetlands and forests, and reasonably control the spatial layout of urban expansion and agricultural development. Additionally, this study highlights the importance of tailored ecological compensation policies and strategic land-use planning to balance environmental protection and economic growth.

Key words: Ecosystem service value (ESV), Northeast Forest Belt of China, Equivalent factor method, Geographic detectors, Driving factors