Abstract:

For this study of long-term spatial patterns and trends of active fires in southern hemispheric Africa and on Madagascar from 2001 to 2020, active fire data from the MODIS FIRMS global fire data products were analyzed. The annual center of fire concentration tended to migrate toward the preserved rainforests and nature conservation areas in the Congo Basin and the mountain forests on the northeastern coast of Madagascar. Fire frequency varied seasonally at both study areas. We used geostatistical analysis techniques, such as measures of dispersion and emerging hot spot analysis, to reveal long-term trends in spatial patterns of fire events. In southern hemispheric Africa, the observed active fires tended to drift northward toward the Zambia-DRC border in the Congo basin. This northward migration progressed toward humid rainforests, which were better suited to sustaining repeated fire events. On Madagascar, the observed active fires tended to migrate toward the east coast in protected mountain forests. The spatial patterns of long-term trends showed a concentration of fires in the tropical regions of southern hemispheric Africa. Moreover, smaller clusters of new hot spots were located over eastern South Africa, overlapping with undifferentiated woodlands. On Madagascar, both hot and cold spots were identified and were separated by the highland region in the center of the island. Most of the eastern island was characterized by cold spots that received less precipitation than did the rest of the island. The presence of increasing hots spots in the densely vegetated areas highlights the urgent need for fire prevention and management in this region.

Key words: Emerging hot spots analysis, FIRMS, Forest fires, Madagascar, MODIS, Southern hemispheric Africa, Wildfires