Abstract:

Natural rubber cultivation is one of the main drivers of tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss. This study examines regulatory and socio-economic conditions that increase the susceptibility of rubber plantations to deforestation and degradation, aiming to support zerodeforestation pledges and sustainability commitments made by the natural rubber industry. By combining bottom-up socio-economic survey data from rubber smallholder farmers in Indonesia with top-down spatial datasets on forest loss and degradation, this study identifies factors associated with deforestation, tree cover loss, and degradation of high-risk plantations. In Jambi Province, Indonesia, from 1991 to 2018, the overall tree cover loss in areas adjacent to rubber plantations was positively correlated to plantation size, remoteness (travel time to cities), and distance to the nearest protected areas, indicating that larger, remotely located plantations likely expanded more into forests between 2000 and 2018. Similarly, tropical forest degradation was positively associated with plantation size, travel time to cities, and distance to protected areas. A higher rubber price in the preceding year correlated with increased annual deforestation and forest degradation, whereas lower prices had the opposite effect. These results suggest that monitoring price changes and identifying plantations that are near non-protected forest frontiers could enable early detection and potential mitigation of deforestation threats.