Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

doi:10.1016/j.pld.2025.05.006

Plant Diversity ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (06): 956-968.DOI: 10.1016/j.pld.2025.05.006

• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles

Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

Ming-Shu Zhu^a,b,c, Zhi-Qiong Mo^a,b,c, Michael Möller^d, Ting Zhang^a, Chao-Nan Fu^a,e, Jie Cai^a, Wei Zheng^a,b, Ya-Huang Luo^b,e,f, De-Zhu Li^a,e,f, Lian-Ming Gao^b,e,f

a Germplasm Bank of Wild Species & Yunnan Key Laboratory of Crop Wild Relatives Omits, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China;
b State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China;
c University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10049, China;
d Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, Scotland, UK;
e Center for Interdisciplinary Biodiversity Research & College of Forestry, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271018, Shandong, China;
f Lijiang Forest Biodiversity National Observation and Research Station, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lijiang 674100, Yunnan, China

Received:2024-12-15 Revised:2025-05-10 Online:2026-01-13 Published:2026-01-13
Contact: Lian-Ming Gao,E-mail:gaolm@mail.kib.ac.cn
Supported by:
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFF0805800), the Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation Program (2021FY100200), the Key Basic Research program of Yunnan Province, China (202101BC070003), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative (2024PVA0087).

Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

Ming-Shu Zhu^a,b,c, Zhi-Qiong Mo^a,b,c, Michael Möller^d, Ting Zhang^a, Chao-Nan Fu^a,e, Jie Cai^a, Wei Zheng^a,b, Ya-Huang Luo^b,e,f, De-Zhu Li^a,e,f, Lian-Ming Gao^b,e,f

a Germplasm Bank of Wild Species & Yunnan Key Laboratory of Crop Wild Relatives Omits, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China;
b State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China;
c University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10049, China;
d Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, Scotland, UK;
e Center for Interdisciplinary Biodiversity Research & College of Forestry, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271018, Shandong, China;
f Lijiang Forest Biodiversity National Observation and Research Station, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lijiang 674100, Yunnan, China

通讯作者: Lian-Ming Gao,E-mail:gaolm@mail.kib.ac.cn
作者简介:Ming-Shu Zhu,E-mail:zhumingshu@mail.kib.ac.cn;Zhi-Qiong Mo,E-mail:Mozhiqiong@mail.kib.ac.cn;Michael Möller,E-mail:m.moeller@rbge.ac.uk;Ting Zhang,E-mail:hangting@mail.kib.ac.cn;Chao-Nan Fu,E-mail:fuchaonan@mail.kib.ac.cn;Jie Cai,E-mail:j.cai@mail.kib.ac.cn;Wei Zheng,E-mail:zhengwei@mail.kib.ac.cn;Ya-Huang Luo,E-mail:luoyahuang@mail.kib.ac.cn;De-Zhu Li,E-mail:dzl@mail.kib.ac.cn
基金资助:
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFF0805800), the Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation Program (2021FY100200), the Key Basic Research program of Yunnan Province, China (202101BC070003), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative (2024PVA0087).

Abstract

Abstract: Over the past century, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have continuously increased global temperature and triggered climate change, significantly impacting species distributions and biodiversity patterns. Understanding how climate-driven shifts in species distributions reshape diversity patterns is crucial for formulating effective future conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of 314 Rhododendron species in China, along with 16 environmental variables, we examined spatial diversity patterns and assessed regional and biome differences in species responses using ensembled species distribution models. Our results indicated that climatic variables significantly influenced species distributions, with ongoing climate change expected to concentrate Rhododendron distribution patterns and alter species composition. Regional topography played a critical role in shaping species responses to global warming. In the mountainous areas of southwestern China, species exhibited heightened sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, shifting upward as temperature increased. This region also had a higher proportion of threatened species and showed an overall contraction in primary distribution range. Conversely, in southern China, species were more influenced by precipitation, exhibiting a notable northward shift and expansion in primary distribution areas. Notably, alpine species, occurring in habitats above the treeline, may face severe survival risks due to the high degree of habitat loss and fragmentation. We identified seven priority conservation areas, predominantly situated in highly fragmented mountainous regions that were inadequately protected by existing nature reserves. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of changes in Rhododendron diversity patterns under climate change, providing valuable insights for developing comprehensive, flora-wide conservation plans in China.

Key words: Climate change, Rhododendron, Diversity patterns, Priority conservation areas, Species distribution models

摘要： Over the past century, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have continuously increased global temperature and triggered climate change, significantly impacting species distributions and biodiversity patterns. Understanding how climate-driven shifts in species distributions reshape diversity patterns is crucial for formulating effective future conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of 314 Rhododendron species in China, along with 16 environmental variables, we examined spatial diversity patterns and assessed regional and biome differences in species responses using ensembled species distribution models. Our results indicated that climatic variables significantly influenced species distributions, with ongoing climate change expected to concentrate Rhododendron distribution patterns and alter species composition. Regional topography played a critical role in shaping species responses to global warming. In the mountainous areas of southwestern China, species exhibited heightened sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, shifting upward as temperature increased. This region also had a higher proportion of threatened species and showed an overall contraction in primary distribution range. Conversely, in southern China, species were more influenced by precipitation, exhibiting a notable northward shift and expansion in primary distribution areas. Notably, alpine species, occurring in habitats above the treeline, may face severe survival risks due to the high degree of habitat loss and fragmentation. We identified seven priority conservation areas, predominantly situated in highly fragmented mountainous regions that were inadequately protected by existing nature reserves. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of changes in Rhododendron diversity patterns under climate change, providing valuable insights for developing comprehensive, flora-wide conservation plans in China.

关键词: Climate change, Rhododendron, Diversity patterns, Priority conservation areas, Species distribution models

Ming-Shu Zhu, Zhi-Qiong Mo, Michael Möller, Ting Zhang, Chao-Nan Fu, Jie Cai, Wei Zheng, Ya-Huang Luo, De-Zhu Li, Lian-Ming Gao. Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China[J]. Plant Diversity, 2025, 47(06): 956-968.

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Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

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